KUALA LUMPUR, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- Economists at research houses have foreseen gradual economic recovery for Malaysia ahead despite its third-quarter economy growing weaker than expected.
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said in a note on Monday that the larger seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) growth implies the persistence of a gradual recovery in the economy in the fourth quarter, which the research house estimated at about 4 percent year on year.
It also expects the growth momentum to improve further to 4.6 percent in 2024, backed by a base case scenario of a soft landing in the global economy despite rising global uncertainties.
BMI Industry Research said in a note on Friday last week that it expects Malaysia's economic recovery over the coming quarters to be gradual due to the ongoing impact of weakening global demand and restrictive monetary conditions.
Overall, the research house has revised down the forecast for Malaysia's real GDP growth to 3.9 percent in 2023, from 4 percent previously, marking a sharp slowdown from 8.7 percent in 2022.
According to it, Malaysia's real GDP growth picked up from 2.9 percent year on year in the second quarter to 3.3 percent in the third quarter, coming in above consensus estimates but below its forecasts.
CGS CIMB, on the other hand, said in a note on Friday last week that it believes that Malaysia's economic growth in the fourth quarter and 2024 will depend on the strength of demand from the advanced economies, contingent on the risk of high interest rates and escalation of geopolitical conflicts.
The research house anticipates Malaysia's exports to progressively increase in 2024 amid better international trade conditions and increased demand for its electric and electronic (E&E) products.
As for domestic demand, it believes the execution of catalyst projects in accordance with national master plans and the ongoing advancement of multi-year infrastructure projects will encourage investment activity.
CGS CIMB also expects tourist arrivals to the Southeast Asian country to increase in the upcoming quarters as more flights will be available to accommodate higher international travel demand.
Further, it believes Malaysia's employment and income growth will continue to be robust in 2024 amidst the ongoing development of economic activities supported by government policy measures.
"Overall, we maintain our GDP growth forecasts at 4 percent for 2023 and 4.6 percent for 2024," it said.